Decision making modelling for beginners (WS 2016/17)
- Beschreibung
Making real life decisions can be quite complex and stressful. The goal of this project is to introduce the idea of simulation modelling as a decision support tool. Using the STELLA modelling software, simple scenarios are illustrated and simulated. The project will be conducted in four phases: Phase 1: Introduction to decision modelling and STELLA software, using real case studies from Thailand and Vietnam. Phase 2: Extraction of parameters for a simulation model from primary and secondary data. Phase 3: Development of a model in Stella software, sensitivity and accuracy test of model parameters Phase 4: Writing a project report (5-10 pages) and an abstract (max 300 words) as well as designing the project poster in A0 size, which will be presented at the Humboldt reloaded annual meeting in October 2017.
Based on the project concept, the basic methods of scientific work (literature review and writing methods, data analysis, Poster creation, project and time management) will also be introduced.
- Projektzeitraum
- Wintersemester 2016/17
- Bewerbungszeitraum
- 16. bis 25.10.2016
- Durchführung
- nach Absprache
- Details zu Projektzeitraum und Durchführung
Overview of activities for the project
Weeks 1 - 2: Introduction to decision making
Tasks: Literature search/review on decision modelling and factors influencing decision-making
Report: A brief written summary on decision-making factors/drivers and modelling
Week 3 - 4: Determine decision process from data
Tasks: Create a dataset and parameters from primary and secondary sources; Introduction to simple descriptive analyses using MSExcel -> show process (mean, median, …, bar, pie, …)
Outcome: List of decision factors, frequency tables and graphs
Weeks 5 - 6: Introduction to simple modeling using STELLA
Tasks: Determine process for decision making and build a simple decision model -> STELLA tutorial
Outcome: Decision rules -> decision trees -> Decision model
Weeks 7 - 8: Testing the model with different scenarios (Modeling scale: watershed/regional level)
Tasks: Develop possible scenarios and expected results -> change level/order of importance of factors
Outcome: Sensitivity analysis of parameters
Weeks 8 - 9: Wrap up -> Write-up and poster
- Studienfach
- offen für alle Studienfächer
- Betreuende
- Irene Chukwumah
- Institut
- Institut für Tropische Agrarwissenschaften (Hans-Ruthenberg-Institut) (490) (Agronomy in the Tropics and Subtropics (490e))
- Sprache
- englisch
- Teilnehmendenanzahl
-
min. 2, max. 4
(2 Kleingruppen mit max. 2 Teilnehmenden ) - Arbeitsaufwand
-
ca. 180 Stunden pro Teilnehmende:r
| 6
ECTS-Punkte
Arbeitsaufwand (Stunden und ggf. ECTS) sind ungefähre Angaben. Die tatsächlich vergebenen ECTS-Punkte ergeben sich aus der tatsächlich geleisteten Arbeit.
- Für dieses Projekt ist kein Motivationsschreiben des Studierenden erforderlich
- Projektart
- theoretisch/nicht experimentell
- Lernziele
-
Die Teilnehmende lernen in diesem Projekt:
Based on the project concept, the basic methods of scientific work (literature, writing methods, Poster creation, project and time management) will also be introduced.
- Anmerkungen für Studierende