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Decision making modelling for beginners (WS 2016/17)

Beschreibung

Making real life decisions can be quite complex and stressful. The goal of this project is to introduce the idea of simulation modelling as a decision support tool. Using the STELLA modelling software, simple scenarios are illustrated and simulated. The project will be conducted in four phases: Phase 1: Introduction to decision modelling and STELLA software, using real case studies from Thailand and Vietnam. Phase 2: Extraction of parameters for a simulation model from primary and secondary data. Phase 3: Development of a model in Stella software, sensitivity and accuracy test of model parameters Phase 4: Writing a project report (5-10 pages) and an abstract (max 300 words) as well as designing the project poster in A0 size, which will be presented at the Humboldt reloaded annual meeting in October 2017.

Based on the project concept, the basic methods of scientific work (literature review and writing methods, data analysis,  Poster creation, project and time management) will also be introduced.

Projektzeitraum
Wintersemester 2016/17
Bewerbungszeitraum
16. bis 25.10.2016
Durchführung
nach Absprache
Details zu Projektzeitraum und Durchführung

Overview of activities for the project

Weeks 1 - 2: Introduction to decision making

Tasks: Literature search/review on decision modelling and factors influencing decision-making 

Report: A brief written summary on decision-making factors/drivers and modelling

Week 3 - 4: Determine decision process from data

Tasks: Create a dataset and parameters from primary and secondary sources; Introduction to simple descriptive analyses using MSExcel -> show process (mean, median, …, bar, pie, …)

Outcome: List of decision factors, frequency tables and graphs

Weeks 5 - 6: Introduction to simple modeling using STELLA

Tasks: Determine process for decision making and build a simple decision model -> STELLA tutorial

Outcome: Decision rules -> decision trees -> Decision model

Weeks 7 - 8: Testing the model with different scenarios (Modeling scale: watershed/regional level)

Tasks: Develop possible scenarios and expected results -> change level/order of importance of factors

Outcome: Sensitivity analysis of parameters

Weeks 8 - 9: Wrap up -> Write-up and poster

 

Studienfach
offen für alle Studienfächer
Betreuende
Irene Chukwumah
Institut
Institut für Tropische Agrarwissenschaften (Hans-Ruthenberg-Institut) (490) (Agronomy in the Tropics and Subtropics (490e))
Sprache
englisch
Teilnehmendenanzahl
min. 2, max. 4
(2 Kleingruppen mit max. 2 Teilnehmenden )
Arbeitsaufwand
ca. 180 Stunden pro Teilnehmende:r | 6 ECTS-Punkte

Arbeitsaufwand (Stunden und ggf. ECTS) sind ungefähre Angaben. Die tatsächlich vergebenen ECTS-Punkte ergeben sich aus der tatsächlich geleisteten Arbeit.

 
Für dieses Projekt ist kein Motivationsschreiben des Studierenden erforderlich
Projektart
theoretisch/nicht experimentell
Lernziele

Die Teilnehmende lernen in diesem Projekt:

Based on the project concept, the basic methods of scientific work (literature, writing methods, Poster creation, project and time management) will also be introduced.

Anmerkungen für Studierende